Early 2024 March Madness Thoughts
As I write this on February 1st, college basketball has been very eventful so far this season. So far, some of the biggest storylines of the season have been AP Top-10 ranked teams losing on the road to unranked teams at a historic rate, the defending champs UConn continuing their momentum by being ranked number 1 in the AP Poll despite losing many key players from last year, and Purdue being ranked number 2 in the AP Poll following their shocking loss to 16-seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the 2023 tournament. With Selection Sunday only 6 weeks away, I wanted to do an early check-in to group some teams into 3 categories for March Madness, based on their play this season and their performances in recent March Madness tournaments.
Teams I Trust
· Kansas (currently ranked 8th in the AP Poll and 13th in the NET Rankings) — Importantly to me, Kansas has an experienced head coach in Bill Self who has won 2 NCAA Championships with Kansas, including most recently in 2022. In the 2023 tournament, Kansas lost in the 2nd round to Arkansas, but crucially, Bill Self was not able to coach that game due to a medical absence. Kansas also has experienced players in leading scorers Kevin McCullar Jr. and Hunter Dickinson, both seniors. Come March, I’m going to trust Kansas’ talent, coaching experience, and players’ experience.
· UConn (currently ranked 1st in the AP Poll and 4th in the NET Rankings) — While head coach Danny Hurley doesn’t have as much experience as the other coaches in this group (currently in his 6th season at UConn after 6 seasons at Rhode Island and 2 at Wagner), Hurley and UConn really impressed me in the 2023 tournament with how they dominated on their way to winning it all. They won every game by at least 13 points and the players seem to respond well to Hurley’s intensity. While last year was their first time advancing beyond the Sweet Sixteen during Hurley’s tenure, I trust UConn to make another run in the tournament this year. While they did lose many key pieces from last year’s championship team, they have a senior guard leading scorer in Tristen Newton, and they have a significant x-factor in 7’2” Donovan Clingan if he can stay healthy. If they were to win it all again, they would be the first back-to-back champs since Florida in 2006 and 2007.
· Michigan State (currently unranked in the AP Poll and 23rd in the NET Rankings) — In the 2016 tournament, Michigan State became only the eighth 2-seed to lose to a 15-seed against Middle Tennessee State. Since then, Michigan State reached the Final Four in 2019 and the Sweet Sixteen in 2023 as a 7-seed and won their opening round game in 2022 as a 7-seed. Michigan State is led by Coach Tom Izzo, who is in his 27th season leading the Spartans, and their experienced leading scorer in senior guard Tyson Walker. Come March, no matter their seed, I trust Izzo and the Spartans to always have a chance to make it to the second weekend of the tournament.
· Bonus — Unfortunately, Villanova would be here if Jay Wright were still coaching the team. During his tremendous tenure, Villanova went from struggling in March Madness to becoming a dynasty, winning it all in 2016 and 2018, and getting to the Sweet Sixteen in 2021 and the Final Four in 2022. With Kyle Neptune in his second year as the new head coach, I definitely don’t trust ‘Nova like I used to, and they may not even get a chance to make a run in the tournament, as Joe Lunardi currently has them projected as the “First Team Out” of his projected bracket.
Teams I’m Not Falling For
· Arizona (currently ranked 11th in the AP Poll and 3rd in the NET Rankings) — Going into the last two tournaments, I feel like it was a constant narrative of hearing how good Arizona is, just to then see them underachieve in the tournament. Arizona did not make the tournament in 2021, lost in the Sweet 16 to a 5-seed as a 1-seed in 2022, and lost in the first round to 15-seeded Princeton as a 2-seed in 2023. Come tournament time, I believe that Arizona suffers from playing in a weak Pac-12 conference (they are the only Pac-12 team in the top 30 of the NET Rankings) and an inexperienced head coach in Tommy Lloyd (3rd season as Arizona head coach, which is his first head coaching job after being an assistant at Gonzaga).
· Alabama (currently ranked 24th in the AP Poll and 7th in the NET Rankings) — Alabama has very impressive rankings in the statistical models (8th in KenPom and 7th in the NET), but to me, they just don’t beat enough good teams. They only have a combined 5 Quad 1 and Quad 2 wins, which is tied for the least among any team in the top 16 of the NET Rankings. Additionally, I don’t yet trust Coach Nate Oats come tournament time, as he is only in his 5th season at Alabama after 4 seasons coaching Buffalo, and the last few years they have underachieved in the tournament after coming in with lots of pre-tournament hype. In 2021 they lost in the Sweet 16 as a 2-seed to an 11-seed, in 2022 they lost in the first round as a 6-seed, and in 2023, as the number one overall seed, they lost in the Sweet 16 to a 5-seed. To me, something about Alabama’s elite offense never seems to travel to March Madness, and we could be in for the same potential letdown story again this year, as Alabama is ranked 2nd in adjusted offensive efficiency by KenPom (points scored per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent) but only ranked 67th in adjusted defensive efficiency (points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for opponent).
· Tennessee (currently ranked 5th in the AP Poll and 5th in the NET Rankings) — Every year, I feel like it’s the same story with Tennessee, that come tournament time, it’s simply too much of a struggle for them to score points. I can already see that pattern developing again this year, as they are currently ranked 2nd in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom but only 29th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Tennessee has disappointed in the tournament the last 3 years, losing in the first round as a 5-seed in 2021, losing in the second round to an 11-seed as a 3-seed in 2022, and losing in the Sweet 16 to a 9-seed as a 4-seed in 2023.
Teams I’m Cautiously Monitoring
· Houston (currently ranked 4th in the AP Poll and 1st in the NET Rankings) — I like that Houston moved into a much stronger conference this year in the Big 12 (from the American Athletic Conference), so that they get to play against better competition all year. Houston has an experienced head coach in Kelvin Sampson, but I’m personally just a little hesitant to trust Houston after they were touted as a popular pick to win it all last year and then proceeded to lose in the Sweet 16 to a 5-seed as a 1-seed. Something about Houston’s brand of basketball of relying on an elite defense doesn’t instill confidence in me come tournament time. Houston currently finds themselves ranked first in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom, but only ranked 15th in adjusted offensive efficiency. While Houston has had some success the last few years in the tournament, I think I will be hesitant to pick them to win the championship this March.
· Purdue (currently ranked 2nd in the AP Poll and 2nd in the NET Rankings) — I really do want to believe that this year will be different for Purdue. They have the most dominant player in the sport in Zach Edey, who is in position to win back-to-back national player of the year awards, their freshmen guards from last year are now one year older and more experienced, and Matt Painter is in his 19th season as head coach of the Boilermakers. But I really just can’t get past their abysmal March Madness performances from the last few years. In 2021 they lost in the first round as a 4 seed to a 13-seed, in 2022 they lost in the Sweet 16 to a 15-seed as a 3-seed, and in 2023 they became just the second ever 1-seed to lose in the first round to a 16-seed. If I were only filling out one bracket, I definitely wouldn’t pick Purdue to win the championship, but if I’m filling out a few brackets, I may considering picking them as my champion in one due to the talent they have on their roster this year. Afterall, Virginia went on to win the championship in 2019 the year after they became the first ever 1-seed to lose to a 16-seed!
· Kentucky (currently ranked 10th in the AP Poll and 25th in the NET Rankings) — Kentucky has a ton of offensive firepower this year (ranked 10th in adjusted offensive efficiency on KenPom) led by star senior guard Antonio Reeves and a trio of exciting freshman guards (Rob Dillingham, Reed Sheppard, and D.J. Wagner). Coach John Calipari is in his 15th season leading the Wildcats and won the championship with them in 2012. But Kentucky struggles on the defensive end (ranked 76th in adjusted defensive efficiency) and has had disastrous performances in March Madness the last few years. They did not make the tournament in 2021, lost to 15-seed St. Peter’s as a 2-seed in 2022, and then lost in the second round in 2023.
· Bonus — The Mountain West Conference currently has 4 teams in the top 32 of the NET rankings, which is a big accomplishment for a mid-major conference. But the Mountain West has had very limited tournament success in the past few years (besides San Diego State reaching the championship game last year). In the 2023 tournament, they had 4 teams in the field, but San Diego State was the only one of them to win a game. In the 2022 tournament, they also had 4 teams in the field, and none of them won a game. In the 2021 tournament, they had 2 teams in the field, and neither of them won a game. So out of 10 Mountain West teams to make the field in the last 3 tournaments, only one of those teams won a single game in the tournament. I will be curious to see how these highly ranked Mountain West Conference teams fare in this year’s tournament.
